GIEWS Update

El Niño to return in 2023 following a three-year La Niña phase

The El Niño oceanographic phenomenon forecast to return in June 2023, following three years of La Niña. Dry weather conditions are expected in key cropping areas of Central America, Southern Africa and Far East Asia, while excessive rainfall and possible flooding are foreseen in Near East Asia and East Africa.

Weather forecasts point to a transition to an El Niño state in the second half of 2023. Rainfall patterns during El Niño events tend to be the reverse of La Niña. For example, in East Africa and Near East Asian countries there is a tendency for wetter conditions. Conversely, drier conditions are generally observed in West Africa, Southern Africa, India, South East Asia, Australia, northern areas of South America and Central America.

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