China is forecast to produce 1.4 million metric tons (tons) of walnuts in 2022/23, accounting for over half of world output. Within China, Xinjiang Province accounts for more than half of China’s production followed by Yunnan, Shanxi, and Shaanxi Provinces. Output increased nearly 80 percent in the last decade due in part to a poverty-alleviation program that was implemented in mountainous and hilly areas, which encouraged farmers to invest in new plantings.
However, new growers have struggled to implement modern crop management practices such as mechanization, irrigation, pruning, and fertilization. In contrast, most walnut orchards in Xinjiang Province have been planted in flat areas, making it feasible for growers to mechanize the harvest and keep labor costs low. Industry sources
indicate that Xinjiang walnut varieties have a much higher kernel content than their counterparts in other walnut-producing countries.
In 2016/17, China was the world’s seventh-largest exporter with shipments of just 18,000 tons. By 2019/20, China became the second largest exporter behind the United States with shipments of 144,000 tons and is forecast to remain in that position. This impressive growth has been driven by exports to new and neighboring markets Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Pakistan where competition is limited. Shipments have also risen to the world’s top markets European Union, Turkey, and United Arab Emirates.
As the world’s largest walnut producer, China is well-positioned to continue expanding trade to border countries. However, it is less certain whether China continues to expand its market share in the world’s top markets European Union, Turkey, and United Arab Emirates because output is dominated by over 50 local walnut varieties characterized as having dark kernels and bitter taste. With an eye to the future, the China Chamber of Commerce (CNFA) is drafting industry standards to differentiate by grade to improve export quality and solidify its position in these markets.
Almonds
Global almond production for 2022/23 is forecast 10 percent lower to 1.5 million metric tons (tons) shelled basis, as losses in the United States and the European Union more than offset gains in other producing countries. Rebounding consumption is expected to draw inventories down nearly one third from last year’s record level. Global exports are expected to rise nearly 10 percent to a record 1.1 million tons on strong shipments from the United States and Australia to the European Union and China.
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