World production for 2021/22 is projected up 1.0 million tons to 81.6 million as China supplies edge upward and several EU Member States recover from the previous year’s damaging weather. Imports are expected to slip on reduced shipments to Russia.
China production is expected to rise nearly 1.0 million tons to 45.0 million on output from new plantings coming into production, though a string of adverse weather events is expected to reduce supplies of high‐quality fruit. Acreage is estimated to remain nearly unchanged, but some farmers are converting land to more profitable fruit such as cherries. Despite higher supplies of lower‐quality fruit, exports are forecast down 72,000 tons to 1.0 million as COVID‐19‐related disruptions hinder shipments to several key ASEAN markets, including Myanmar, Philippines, and Thailand. Sustained shipments from New Zealand and South Africa are expected to keep imports nearly unchanged at 65,000 tons.
EU production is estimated nearly flat at 11.9 million tons as losses from a spring frost in Italy and France are offset by rebounds in leading producers Poland, Spain, and Hungary. In line with production, exports are forecast nearly unchanged at 1.0 million tons, while imports edge higher to 335,000 tons on greater shipments from Chile.
U.S. production is expected to shrink 170,000 tons to 4.3 million, its lowest level since 2012/13, as high temperatures affected yield in Washington and frost reduced Michigan’s output. USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) surveyed industry and updated U.S. production in the May 2022 Non-citrus Fruits and Nuts 2021 Summary report. Reduced supplies are expected to pressure exports 63,000 tons lower to 715,000, their lowest level since 2007/08. Gains to top markets Mexico, Canada, and Taiwan are more than offset by losses to other Asian markets, including India. Imports are expected to rise 11,000 tons to 120,000 on higher shipments from all major suppliers.